Rams, Patriots Super Keys

SPEEDYLEEWAY’s Super Bowl Prediction

          It has not been easy for me to produce a logic-based look at this year’s Super Bowl between the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams. I am far too emotionally involved for this to be easy. I feel sorry for the folks who have to work with me on Monday if the Rams lose this game. Most of you have seen me after a Rams playoff loss. I’m not much fun, I know.

          Having written the above rubbish, I now present my best guess about this game.

1.     In order for the Rams to win, they must get a big push from the middle of their defensive line on every pass play. The Rams must crowd Tom Brady’s front foot, his left foot, before he can release the ball. Even if they do not sack Brady, the Rams can make Brady seem human if he is not able to step forward firmly as he delivers the ball. The year the Patriots took a perfect record into the Super Bowl and lost to the Giants, the Giants did this and won the game. Key: Crowd Brady’s passing motion.

2.     The Patriots have an outstanding defensive backfield and are brilliantly coached. They will present Rams QB Jared Goff with confusing pre-snap looks and in-play changes in passing situations. Heck, they’ll do this on every play. The Patriots are exceptionally good at this kind of thing and Goff will be lucky to avoid turnovers. The Rams must protect Goff from the Patriot pass rush. Sometime during the game, the Rams will probably need to hit at least one big pass play. The Rams must hit on one or more and Goff must avoid turnovers. Key: Protect Goff and beat the Patriots defensive backfield.

3.     In order for the Rams passing game to succeed, they must run the football. In the previous two playoff games, the Rams have done so. But this week, the opposition is not the over-rated Cowboys nor the Saints. This week the opponent is far more capable along the front seven and the Rams offensive line will have to make it possible for backs Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson to squirt loose for first downs. In a close game, which might cause yours truly to suffer multiple heart attacks, the need will come for the winning team to grind out clock-draining first downs. The team that can do that will probably win the game. The Rams defensive front seven will have to stop the run and the Rams offensive line will have to help produce the run. Key: Who runs the football best?

4.     Convert red zone opportunities to touchdowns. Key: Score touchdowns.

5.     If the Rams have an obvious edge, it is in place kicking. Greg Zuerlein is an outstanding kicker. If the game comes down to Zuerlein kicking a field goal from 55 yards or closer for the Rams, you like their chances.

6.     Rob Gronkowski. You can talk until you are blue in the face about Tom Brady, but I think the best clutch player the Patriots have is Gronkowski. A big game for the Gronk and this thing is over. The Rams will have to minimize his contributions. That’s easy to say and almost impossible to do, especially since the Patriots have several other very productive receivers as well. One way to accomplish this goal goes back to Key number one: Don’t give Brady space to step into his throws. Key: Don’t let Brady throw to Gronkowski.

7.     Sooner or later, either the Rams or Patriots will convert a first-down opportunity in a clutch situation. The Rams have converted a few times with passes by their punter, Johnny Hekker. Look for the Patriots to have these plays covered. Key: Resist the urge to gamble, at least early in the game.

8.     Both teams have exceptionally good defensive lines. The team that extends offensive possessions, even drives that do not result in scores, will be the team with the most vigorous defensive line in crunch time. Key: Give the defensive line enough rest. See Key 3.

9.     Tom Brady. Key: Do not give him the ball with even a second remaining in the game.

10. Neither team can count on every screwy play going their way, but luck frequently plays a major role in Super Bowls. A lucky bounce of the oblong spheroid, an extended review of a TV replay when the defense is tired, a goofy review decision that somehow makes little sense or even a penalty on a missed kick that allows a second try can make a huge difference. Key: Get lucky.

I hate to say it and I hope I am wrong, but I expect the Patriots to win this game. The organization has a tremendous amount of experience in the spotlight and the Rams do not. The Rams have a really good team and they have an excellent chance but I think the Patriots will probably win.

We have seen this movie before. It debuted February 3, 2002 in the New Orleans Super Dome when Brady and the Patriots beat Kurt Warner and the Greatest Show of Turf 20-17. There might be a few more points this time, say 35-31, Patriots.

The last time these teams met for the title, I was in Daytona Beach, Florida for the Rolex 24 at Daytona. Got to the track several hours before the start of the race, stayed up through the entire event, got my writing done and rushed back to the hotel for the start of the game. Watched the entire game and ended up staying awake for about 36 straight hours.

Only to lose. Man, did that ever suck. I have no plans to forgive Tom Brady for winning that game, but I might consider it if the Rams win on Sunday.