Schedules and what they mean

 

          One of the most important aspects of ranking college football teams is comparing the respective strength of schedules. How many national contenders do they play, what conference are they in and the current records are all questions that have to be answered when comparing teams that have not played one another.

          The Cincinnati Bearcats, as an example, play in a conference considered to be weak in terms of competitive teams. The conference members might all be equal to one another but they are all weaker than, say, the Atlantic Coast Conference. Cincinnati is undefeated so far this season but they have just one win against a nationally-competitive program, Notre Dame.

          Alabama, pretty much the gold standard for the last decade. Alabama has lost a game this season but is currently ranked either second or third in the country, depending upon which poll you favor.

          We did some comparable research on two schools, Alabama and Notre Dame.

Alabama has won six national championships in recent years under Nick Saban, beating Notre Dame in the title game once. The Crimson Tide plays in the Southeastern Conference, unquestionably the toughest conference to play college football in. Alabama is 10-1 and plays rival Auburn this weekend. Alabama will play top-ranked and unbeaten Georgia for the SEC title in December.

          Notre Dame does not play in a conference but is an associate member of the Atlantic Coast Conference. ACC member Clemson has emerged among the top programs in the country and that has made other members of the ACC better. The Fighting Irish have not won a national championship under the BCS or CFP formats. Notre Dame is also 10-1 and plays its final regular season game against Stanford this week.

          Alabama’s opponents are currently 66-62 this season. Eight Bama opponents have winning records, but that statistic skews your vision in the wrong direction. Mercer was horribly out-manned against Alabama, but Mercer is currently 7-3. Another Alabama opponent, LSU, routinely fields one of the most physically talented squads in the country but LSU is 5-6 and has already fired its coach.

          Notre Dame’s opponents are currently 64-62. Six of Notre Dame’s opponents this season have winning records. Navy might be the weakest team on Notre Dame’s schedule, but Toledo is 6-5 and really isn’t much better than Navy. Typically, Southern Cal is among Notre Dame’s toughest opponents but few programs are as out of whack as is USC’s. The 4-6 Trojans have also canned their head coach.

          There is no reasonable question: Alabama has played a tougher schedule than has Notre Dame. Advantage Alabama.

          Alabama’s loss is to Texas A&M, which is 8-3 and ranked among the top 20 by most ranking services. Notre Dame’s only loss is to unbeaten Cincinnati. Cincinnati is ranked in the top six by most pollsters. Advantage Notre Dame.

          Notre Dame’s most notable wins have come against members of the Big 10: Purdue and Wisconsin. Of all of the teams on Notre Dame’s schedule, only Wisconsin and Cincinnati have as many as eight wins. Alabama’s most notable wins have come against Mississippi and Arkansas. Alabama’s only game against what is now an eight-win team resulted in a loss to Texas A&M. Four Alabama opponents currently have seven wins (not counting Texas A&M). Purdue is Notre Dame’s sole remaining seven-win opponent. You could read this in any of several different ways. From a purely statistical standpoint, we go back to the win-loss records and give the edge to Alabama. From the standpoint of wins against eight-win teams, the edge goes to Notre Dame.

          Both Alabama and Notre Dame have lost players to injury this season. Both have experienced unexpected excellence from some players. Both have won close games and both have lost a game.

          Finally, you wonder what would happen is the teams flipped schedules.

          ALABAMA VS NOTRE DAME’S SCHEDULE: Notre Dame beat Florida State in game one (before FSU had its rash of injuries) and then beat Toledo. Next came consecutive games against Purdue, Wisconsin and Cincinnati and the Irish won two of the three. After that, seven games against teams who now total just 29 wins (Virginia Tech and Southern Cal, the North Carolina, Navy, Virginia, Georgia Tech and next week’s Stanford). Speedylee can’t imagine Alabama losing to any of those schools, although a theoretical match against Wisconsin would have been a great game to watch. Prediction: Alabama would go undefeated.

          NOTRE DAME VS ALABAMA’S SCHEDULE: We assume Notre Dame would have had its way in weeks one and two against Miami and Mercer. Florida would have been a tough out for the Irish (the Gators have terrific physical talent), but if you figure Notre Dame wins that game, then they’d have defeated Southern Mississippi and had a record of 4-0. Then would come a run of games against Mississippi, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Tennessee and LSU. Speedylee does not believe Notre Dame would get through that gauntlet without at least one loss. The grind of consecutive weeks against competition like that is something the Irish never have to contend with. Notre Dame would beat New Mexico in week 10 but then would have to play Arkansas in week 11. In the SEC, Arkansas is average this season but it would probably win the ACC or the Pac 12 titles. Arkansas would also do very well in the Big 10. The final week of the season would be against the unpredictable Auburn. Auburn is ALWAYS ready for Alabama, especially at Auburn. Notre Dame might well have beaten Auburn, had they played this season. Prediction: Notre Dame probably loses twice.

          WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? The truth is that neither Cincinnati nor Notre Dame belong in the College Football Playoff tournament. Neither has played a schedule representative of a team ranked among the top four in the country. Cincinnati might be a television draw – little David against three Goliaths – and Notre Dame is always a good ratings draw. But it will be their potential for helping the slumping ratings of the CFP tournament that earns them berths among the final four. It will not be their on-field victories.

          For either Cincinnati or Notre Dame to make the field, a few things will have to go right. Alabama could lose to Auburn this weekend and, less likely, Ohio State could lose to rival Michigan. A two-loss Crimson Tide is unlikely to make the tournament, even with a victory over Georgia in the SEC title game. The same is true for a two-loss Ohio State team. If Alabama beats Auburn and wins the SEC title game, we expect both “Bama and the Bulldogs to make the final four. That would be the nightmare scenario for Notre Dame and Cincinnati, especially if you assume Ohio State beats Michigan and wins the Big 10 title game. That would fill three spots. At best, only Cincinnati would have a path into the title bracket.

          While Speedylee does not favor increasing the size of the CFP, there is one argument for it: Each Division I conference champ would be likely to earn a berth in the playoff. That could be bad news for Notre Dame since the Irish are not full-time members of a conference.

          We don’t see Notre Dame joining a conference as a fulltime member for football in the near future. The rich traditions of the program begin with its independent status. But, sooner or later, the landscape of college football may force that to change. The natural league for the Fighting Irish would be the 14-member Big 10. Notre Dame’s current agreement with the ACC makes that conference another possibility. A better fit for the Fighting Irish than either the Big 10 or the ACC would be the 10-team Big 12. We say that because Notre Dame could rule the Big 12 in the same way Texas did. The Irish will have to join one conference or another and join the current direction the game is following, sooner or later.