SPEEDYLEEWAY’s Super
Bowl Prediction
It has not been easy for me to produce
a logic-based look at this year’s Super Bowl between the New England Patriots
and the Los Angeles Rams. I am far too emotionally involved for this to be
easy. I feel sorry for the folks who have to work with me on Monday if the Rams
lose this game. Most of you have seen me after a Rams playoff loss. I’m not
much fun, I know.
Having written the above rubbish, I
now present my best guess about this game.
1.
In
order for the Rams to win, they must get a big push from the middle of their
defensive line on every pass play. The Rams must crowd Tom Brady’s front foot,
his left foot, before he can release the ball. Even if they do not sack Brady,
the Rams can make Brady seem human if he is not able to step forward firmly as
he delivers the ball. The year the Patriots took a perfect record into the
Super Bowl and lost to the Giants, the Giants did this and won the game. Key:
Crowd Brady’s passing motion.
2.
The
Patriots have an outstanding defensive backfield and are brilliantly coached.
They will present Rams QB Jared Goff with confusing pre-snap looks and in-play
changes in passing situations. Heck, they’ll do this on every play. The
Patriots are exceptionally good at this kind of thing and Goff will be lucky to
avoid turnovers. The Rams must protect Goff from the Patriot pass rush.
Sometime during the game, the Rams will probably need to hit at least one big
pass play. The Rams must hit on one or more and Goff must avoid turnovers. Key:
Protect Goff and beat the Patriots defensive backfield.
3.
In
order for the Rams passing game to succeed, they must run the football. In the previous two playoff games, the Rams
have done so. But this week, the opposition is not the over-rated Cowboys nor
the Saints. This week the opponent is far more capable along the front seven
and the Rams offensive line will have to make it possible for backs Todd Gurley
and C.J. Anderson to squirt loose for first downs. In a close game, which might
cause yours truly to suffer multiple heart attacks, the need will come for the
winning team to grind out clock-draining first downs. The team that can do that
will probably win the game. The Rams defensive front seven will have to stop
the run and the Rams offensive line will have to help produce the run. Key: Who
runs the football best?
4.
Convert
red zone opportunities to touchdowns. Key: Score touchdowns.
5.
If
the Rams have an obvious edge, it is in place kicking. Greg Zuerlein is an
outstanding kicker. If the game comes down to Zuerlein kicking a field goal
from 55 yards or closer for the Rams, you like their chances.
6.
Rob
Gronkowski. You can talk until you are blue in the face about Tom Brady, but I
think the best clutch player the Patriots have is Gronkowski. A big game for
the Gronk and this thing is over. The Rams will have to minimize his
contributions. That’s easy to say and almost impossible to do, especially since
the Patriots have several other very productive receivers as well. One way to
accomplish this goal goes back to Key number one: Don’t give Brady space to
step into his throws. Key: Don’t let Brady throw to Gronkowski.
7.
Sooner
or later, either the Rams or Patriots will convert a first-down opportunity in
a clutch situation. The Rams have converted a few times with passes by their
punter, Johnny Hekker. Look for the Patriots to have these plays covered. Key:
Resist the urge to gamble, at least early in the game.
8.
Both
teams have exceptionally good defensive lines. The team that extends offensive
possessions, even drives that do not result in scores, will be the team with
the most vigorous defensive line in crunch time. Key: Give the defensive line
enough rest. See Key 3.
9.
Tom
Brady. Key: Do not give him the ball with even a second remaining in the game.
10. Neither team can count on every
screwy play going their way, but luck frequently plays a major role in Super
Bowls. A lucky bounce of the oblong spheroid, an extended review of a TV replay
when the defense is tired, a goofy review decision that somehow makes little
sense or even a penalty on a missed kick that allows a second try can make a
huge difference. Key: Get lucky.
I hate to say it and I hope I am
wrong, but I expect the Patriots to win this game. The organization has a
tremendous amount of experience in the spotlight and the Rams do not. The Rams
have a really good team and they have an excellent chance but I think the
Patriots will probably win.
We have seen this movie before. It
debuted February 3, 2002 in the New Orleans Super Dome when Brady and the Patriots
beat Kurt Warner and the Greatest Show of Turf 20-17. There might be a few more
points this time, say 35-31, Patriots.
The last time these teams met for the
title, I was in Daytona Beach, Florida for the Rolex 24 at Daytona. Got to the
track several hours before the start of the race, stayed up through the entire
event, got my writing done and rushed back to the hotel for the start of the
game. Watched the entire game and ended up staying awake for about 36 straight
hours.
Only to lose. Man, did that ever
suck. I have no plans to forgive Tom Brady for winning that game, but I might
consider it if the Rams win on Sunday.
